Grand Experiment 2: Treading Water in the SCL 10 Post-Shardpocalypse

1…2324262829…71

Comments

  • Sekilicious
    Sekilicious Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    ThaRoadWarrior said:
    Whew! Organic blue for Shang-Chi, bringing him to 3/5/4. Once Hearts of Darkness ends, I’ll only be 50 shards short of champing him not counting hypothetical shards gained from pulls along the way. It does seem that sharding Next Unchamped Out is going to be part of the plan moving forward.
    Nice. There is still a bit of time left before he rotates as well. Hopefully you get him organically. 
  • DAZ0273
    DAZ0273 Posts: 11,478 Chairperson of the Boards
    Do we know when he is out? Couple of weeks?
  • Sekilicious
    Sekilicious Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    According to the rotate bot on Discord it should be around Dec 13. So early next week maybe. 
  • ThaRoadWarrior
    ThaRoadWarrior Posts: 9,564 Chairperson of the Boards
    Yeah that sounds correct. Usually it’s the second Monday after their release store closed, which for Sersei was on 11/30. 
  • DAZ0273
    DAZ0273 Posts: 11,478 Chairperson of the Boards
    Not good news as I blew my CP on chasing the last pull I need already without success. Not sure how much CP and LT's I can generate in 5 days but I guess it is all going in Latest (and I still need Sersi too after that). Bah! Oh well, I have the 3 saved red if absolutely necessary.
  • Xception81
    Xception81 Posts: 433 Mover and Shaker
    He should be out on Dec 13th when Sersi takes his spot. 
  • ThaRoadWarrior
    ThaRoadWarrior Posts: 9,564 Chairperson of the Boards
    I'm not sure that forum behavior is the reliable indicator - the general schedule was always 2 weeks after the close of the incoming character's release store with that Monday's data push. 

    DAZ0273 said:
    Not good news as I blew my CP on chasing the last pull I need already without success. Not sure how much CP and LT's I can generate in 5 days but I guess it is all going in Latest (and I still need Sersi too after that). Bah! Oh well, I have the 3 saved red if absolutely necessary.
    I don't know how many shards you have already, but it didn't take me all that long to grind the last cover I needed for Electro when i was in that position rather than do the 3:1 swap. that's an LT and 25cp you're giving up rather than just wait it out a bit. SC seems very usable un-champed too, which is pretty atypical anymore. Up to you of course.
  • DAZ0273
    DAZ0273 Posts: 11,478 Chairperson of the Boards
    ThaRoadWarrior said:
    I'm not sure that forum behavior is the reliable indicator - the general schedule was always 2 weeks after the close of the incoming character's release store with that Monday's data push. 

    DAZ0273 said:
    Not good news as I blew my CP on chasing the last pull I need already without success. Not sure how much CP and LT's I can generate in 5 days but I guess it is all going in Latest (and I still need Sersi too after that). Bah! Oh well, I have the 3 saved red if absolutely necessary.
    I don't know how many shards you have already, but it didn't take me all that long to grind the last cover I needed for Electro when i was in that position rather than do the 3:1 swap. that's an LT and 25cp you're giving up rather than just wait it out a bit. SC seems very usable un-champed too, which is pretty atypical anymore. Up to you of course.

    I literally just hit and exchanged 500 for a cover this week. So I could wait but it is the best part of 500. :(
  • Sekilicious
    Sekilicious Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    DAZ0273 said:
    Not good news as I blew my CP on chasing the last pull I need already without success. Not sure how much CP and LT's I can generate in 5 days but I guess it is all going in Latest (and I still need Sersi too after that). Bah! Oh well, I have the 3 saved red if absolutely necessary.
    Assuming 3.5 pulls a day you should get 17 more kicks at the can, which should translate to 3 more 5* covers. I will sacrifice a goat to Tymora for you. 
  • DAZ0273
    DAZ0273 Posts: 11,478 Chairperson of the Boards
    Sekilicious said:
    DAZ0273 said:
    Not good news as I blew my CP on chasing the last pull I need already without success. Not sure how much CP and LT's I can generate in 5 days but I guess it is all going in Latest (and I still need Sersi too after that). Bah! Oh well, I have the 3 saved red if absolutely necessary.
    Assuming 3.5 pulls a day you should get 17 more kicks at the can, which should translate to 3 more 5* covers. I will sacrifice a goat to Tymora for you. 

    Unfortunately my schedule wont allow for that level of play before Monday but the goat thing sounds good! :smiley:
  • entrailbucket
    entrailbucket Posts: 7,001 Chairperson of the Boards
    ThaRoadWarrior said:
    Whew! Organic blue for Shang-Chi, bringing him to 3/5/4. Once Hearts of Darkness ends, I’ll only be 50 shards short of champing him not counting hypothetical shards gained from pulls along the way. It does seem that sharding Next Unchamped Out is going to be part of the plan moving forward.
    Like I said, that's what I do and it seems to work (with the rather colossal caveat that it seems to work *for me*). 

    I do switch to using CP on latest if Next Unchamped Out is rotating soon and isn't champed yet, but I haven't had to do that in awhile.  Currently I have Shang-Chi at lvl454 without using any CP in latest, and Ultron is 4/1/5 with 497 shards so I'm not worried about him at all.  I haven't had a 5* leave latest unchamped since Iron Man, and that was so long ago that it's really a different game now.


    I really don't know if you can do, like, exactly what I do and still make progress, though.  Everyone always told me it was not possible (and also to shut up about it and go away).  I suspect you'd have to adjust something, but no one I know of has ever tried it at all.

    I think you have enough 5* champed now that almost any hit out of classics generates half a bonus pull, and if the 4* farm is working...it's at least possible.
  • ThaRoadWarrior
    ThaRoadWarrior Posts: 9,564 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited December 2021
    Yeah it definitely feels possible. My pull right on the back of that SC was also a 5*, but it was a red Ultron (1/2/2). I still just have the one Gamora cover. So I’ll probably be in Latest for awhile.

    It feels to me like if you have 6+ covers on the NEXT out after the one that is about to leave, it's pretty safe to switch to classic, but if you have below that threshold, it might prove to be a tight chase. 
  • entrailbucket
    entrailbucket Posts: 7,001 Chairperson of the Boards
    Only one way to find out... experiment and test. 

    Again, no one is doing this, and certainly they're not documenting it, so this is all new.  The other roster building strategies have been completely mathed out and solved for years.
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited December 2021
    What I did was to do an update every 7-14 days and a monthly update of my CPs and LTs gain to look for any big fluctuation. Then, I added these five figures and averaged them out. Lastly, I added in a 10% deduction to the final figure, rounded down. Every 7-14 days, I'll record my CPs and LTs to date. But before doing so, I will do a predicted figure using the above formula to see whether it's in line. With this, I'm able to predict accurately how much cp I can spend on Classic or Special stores. 

    This is pulled from my record:
    LT / CP / CP + LT (LT equivalent)
    a) 1.3 / 38.2 / 2.83 LT
    b) 1.4 / 34.8 / 2.82 LT
    c) 1.9 / 42.2 / 3.65 LT
    d) 1.7 / 43.1 / 3.45 LT
    e) 1.5 / 45.7 / 3.32 LT

    Average = 1.5 LT / 40 CPs
    Final figure (after 10% deduction) = 1.4 LT / 36 CPs.

    I predicted myself to have 132 LTs and 5222 CPs on 10 Feb 2022. That's why I decided to spend 50 pulls on Sersi's store. That will leave me with ~290 LTs to champ all latest 5* from Sersi to the next 2 5*. Since I will have 2 covers via shards, I will need 231 pulls to champ them and that extra 50 pulls are there just in case the odds are not in my favour.
  • ThaRoadWarrior
    ThaRoadWarrior Posts: 9,564 Chairperson of the Boards
    So are you only pulling Latest and Release stores then? 
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited December 2021
    One of the reasons why I pulled from Sersi special store is because Captain Marvel was 2 covers away from being champed and OMD being in the store sealed the deal. I have a few characters that I want to increase my covers like Adam Warlock, Heimdall, Daredevil and OMD. Once I champ either Daredevil and/or Adam Warlock, I can move to Classics full time. The other reason is since I have about half the 5* champed, it means, approximately half of the 5* will be champ rewards. My need to get more covers for the above characters has more priority than getting champed rewards, so I'll saving those extra pulls when any one of them pops up again.

    I pulled from Classics twice this year when I was able to predict my CPs and LTs income. In early September and mid November, I pulled 50 and 17 Classics respectively. I got 7 5*, and 5 of them turned out to be champed rewards. I was hoping for more covers instead of champed rewards. So, I'm leaning towards special stores currently but I can see the advantages of saving extra pulls for Classics since you have a 50% chance to "trade" 20 cps for one LTs or 25 CPs.

    Edit: I made a total of 372 pulls in special stores this year. If I spent all of them in Classic instead, I would have made 465 pulls. Currently my special store: classic store ratio is 372:67.
  • DAZ0273
    DAZ0273 Posts: 11,478 Chairperson of the Boards
    DAZ0273 said:
    Sekilicious said:
    DAZ0273 said:
    Not good news as I blew my CP on chasing the last pull I need already without success. Not sure how much CP and LT's I can generate in 5 days but I guess it is all going in Latest (and I still need Sersi too after that). Bah! Oh well, I have the 3 saved red if absolutely necessary.
    Assuming 3.5 pulls a day you should get 17 more kicks at the can, which should translate to 3 more 5* covers. I will sacrifice a goat to Tymora for you. 

    Unfortunately my schedule wont allow for that level of play before Monday but the goat thing sounds good! :smiley:

    Well I generated 3 pulls yesterday and I had forgotten we had a boss event and also that the Boss event is Sinister Six which normally my Alliance finishes with ease, so that is another 2 LT's. Also I have an LT coming up in Daily Resupply. So I guess it will come down to PvP. The bad news is that I don't have any dupe 3's ready to champ but I do have one on the cusp of an LT Champ reward. I will have to investigate who to favourite after that and whether they are close to an LT or a nice chunk of CP.
    So it aint over yet!
  • ThaRoadWarrior
    ThaRoadWarrior Posts: 9,564 Chairperson of the Boards
    now that I have all the HoD shards, I only need 46 more shards to finish SC up the "hard way." There is a non-zero chance that I'll get the shards for him chasing an organic cover, assuming no bonus shards that's only 15 more pulls. With the alliance event starting today though, that will mean less overall CP probably (or possibly more I suppose, since my alliance forces us to grind out a million rounds to reach progression rather than playing all at once), so I'm not 100% sure. I do know that in these off-season pick-3s I've been struggling to hit full progression. i think I just don't have  a killer team lined up for this grindhouse boost list that doesn't have any big nukers in it. Either way the situation is not dire at this point for Shang-Chi. Kinda similar to what happened with Electro, where I had pulled enough covers to champ her, just not in the right distribution, and i preferred to grind the shards rather than do the 3:1 swap. So I don't know if I have the "forumula" right for it, but it seems to be working well enough alternating between LT and CL. 

    I like that @HoundofShadow is that meticulously tracking their resources, but for me that's just a step too far when it comes to detailed record keeping. Since I am only pulling from Latest or Classic, I just infer my resource earn based on the spend. It does make it a challenge to truly compare pull rates in a "what if I'd only spent in latest?" question though at those times i'm drawing classics.

    Currently the backburner chase for Black Panther has my P4nther at 345. He seems to be out of true with his shard delivery, since 5* Panther is at 450 shards (3/4/4 build). So when he hits level 350, 5P is going to have 350 shards towards that final cover. The question then becomes do i set my 5* fav to him and focus fire until 4* hits level 355 and he is done, or re-target my 5* to Ultron and let p4nther go until he hits 358? 3 more levels doesn't sound like much, and i suppose it isn't, but you know, why not just be done I guess?

    My next best covered unchamped vintage 5 is Spider Man: Peter Parker at 4/4/3, 70 shards. Vulture is currently sitting at 340, so that'll be the next grind.  

    At this point, I only have 10 Classic 5*s who are missing some covers:

    Archangel: 2/2/4 with 440 shards
    FA Cap: 5/2/3 with 130 shards
    Jean Grey: 5/2/2 with 290 shards
    Surfer: 4/3/3 with 360 shards
    Nata5ha: 4/1/2 with 350 shards (my worst non-new 5*)
    Doctor Octopus: 3/3/4 with 355 shards
    black suit spider man: 4/3/3 with 150 shards
    Parker Spider-Man: 4/4/3 with 70 shards
    Wa5p: 3/4/3 with 40 shards
    (iron man is covered, waiting on iso)

    All are fed, so I could definitely use my 5* fav on Next Unchamped Out and focus on using my 4* feeders and random classic pulls to finish up the remaining ones without feeling too bad about it at this point. I am curious if any of the spider fam of characters might be due for a buff or refresh or something as we stare down the barrel of "something something Home" coming to theaters too.
  • entrailbucket
    entrailbucket Posts: 7,001 Chairperson of the Boards
    If it's any consolation, I'm several hundred 5* levels ahead of you and I can't play the unboosted events at all. 

    Most of the events do have boosted 5s as part of the list...I wish they'd fix them so that the event-specific boosted 5* in each event get +100 instead of +15.  I guess some people really like them though.
  • ThaRoadWarrior
    ThaRoadWarrior Posts: 9,564 Chairperson of the Boards
    Well, Shang-Chi dropped out with only 7 shards left to go, so that could have been worse. I got another yellow for Gamora moments before the data push too. I was grinding so hard in Snowball Fight to get that last shot. i had to Thano5 my way through 4 and 5pt 4* teams for the last 20 points, it was ugly lol. Oh well. 

    Current Latest Crop:
    Ultron: 1/2/2 with 550 shards
    Gamora: 0/0/2 with 740 shards
    Sersi: 0/0/0 with 390 shards

    Current favorites: Shang-Chi: 3/5/4 with 493 shards (sigh)
    Black P4nther: lvl 348 with 42 shards
    Black Panth3r: lvl 195 with 272 shards (I'd been walking that one around chasing LTs for awhile)

Categories