got to love the draw of the odds

slidecage
slidecage Posts: 3,578 Chairperson of the Boards
in MPQ General Discussion

was bored so did 100 LL pull 2 50s

50 2 of out 50
50 9 out of 50

umm yah thats fair lol still got 1185 more pulls but with the 3 sitting at 450 + no reason to pull

Comments

  • Pantera236
    Pantera236 Posts: 579 Critical Contributor

    That's 11% which based on the relatively small sample size is not that bad. In fact if you shrink the sample size down to each of those 50 pulls the second one is 18% lol.

  • sambrookjm
    sambrookjm Posts: 2,199 Chairperson of the Boards

    Mathematics alert!

    Chances of getting exactly 2/50 with a 15% chance: ~1.13%
    Chances of getting exactly 9/50 with a 15% chance: ~12.30%

    Chances of getting exactly 11/100 with a 15% chance: ~6.40%
    Chance of getting 11 or fewer out of 100 with a 15% chance: ~16.35%, or about 1-in-6

    So definitely worse than average over the 100 pulls, but you also had about a 1-in-10 chance of it being worse. :smile:

  • Blackstone
    Blackstone Posts: 695 Critical Contributor

    I once had a 60+ streak with no 5... And that's just when I started counting. I too felt the "this is whack" emotional response.

    But I've also had short bursts where I've gotten several 5's in short order.

    The trick is to purposely give those times where you get more than you expect the same weight as when you get less than you expect. Otherwise, your brain won't recognize it as important.

    Long winded way of saying, it should work itself out in the end.

  • Chrynos1989
    Chrynos1989 Posts: 424 Mover and Shaker
    edited 18 May 2025, 09:23

    @Blackstone said:
    I once had a 60+ streak with no 5... And that's just when I started counting. I too felt the "this is whack" emotional response.

    But I've also had short bursts where I've gotten several 5's in short order.

    The trick is to purposely give those times where you get more than you expect the same weight as when you get less than you expect. Otherwise, your brain won't recognize it as important.

    Long winded way of saying, it should work itself out in the end.

    Yeah, can be crazy, had a dry streak of 80 myself once but also had one time where I had 7 5* in a row, that one was insane

  • dianetics
    dianetics Posts: 1,776 Chairperson of the Boards

    This rotation has been terrible for me. I actually went like 0-40.
    I have yet to pull Juggerduck after 100 pulls. I just want to get him to 450 and be done with it.

Categories