got to love the draw of the odds

slidecage
slidecage Posts: 3,617 Chairperson of the Boards
in MPQ General Discussion

was bored so did 100 LL pull 2 50s

50 2 of out 50
50 9 out of 50

umm yah thats fair lol still got 1185 more pulls but with the 3 sitting at 450 + no reason to pull

Comments

  • Pantera236
    Pantera236 Posts: 606 Critical Contributor

    That's 11% which based on the relatively small sample size is not that bad. In fact if you shrink the sample size down to each of those 50 pulls the second one is 18% lol.

  • sambrookjm
    sambrookjm Posts: 2,253 Chairperson of the Boards

    Mathematics alert!

    Chances of getting exactly 2/50 with a 15% chance: ~1.13%
    Chances of getting exactly 9/50 with a 15% chance: ~12.30%

    Chances of getting exactly 11/100 with a 15% chance: ~6.40%
    Chance of getting 11 or fewer out of 100 with a 15% chance: ~16.35%, or about 1-in-6

    So definitely worse than average over the 100 pulls, but you also had about a 1-in-10 chance of it being worse. :smile:

  • Blackstone
    Blackstone Posts: 761 Critical Contributor

    I once had a 60+ streak with no 5... And that's just when I started counting. I too felt the "this is whack" emotional response.

    But I've also had short bursts where I've gotten several 5's in short order.

    The trick is to purposely give those times where you get more than you expect the same weight as when you get less than you expect. Otherwise, your brain won't recognize it as important.

    Long winded way of saying, it should work itself out in the end.

  • Chrynos1989
    Chrynos1989 Posts: 512 Critical Contributor
    edited 18 May 2025, 09:23

    @Blackstone said:
    I once had a 60+ streak with no 5... And that's just when I started counting. I too felt the "this is whack" emotional response.

    But I've also had short bursts where I've gotten several 5's in short order.

    The trick is to purposely give those times where you get more than you expect the same weight as when you get less than you expect. Otherwise, your brain won't recognize it as important.

    Long winded way of saying, it should work itself out in the end.

    Yeah, can be crazy, had a dry streak of 80 myself once but also had one time where I had 7 5* in a row, that one was insane

  • slidecage
    slidecage Posts: 3,617 Chairperson of the Boards

    did 300 draws got 65 5 stars what even more nuts each time i did a 40 pull it gave me 1600 credits for my fav 5 star.. got aunt may from 527 to 543

  • Scofie
    Scofie GLOBAL_MODERATORS Posts: 1,651 Chairperson of the Boards

    I got 29 in 150 LL pulls. Was happy with that. Nowhere near as many shards, though - about 2000 in total. Still, 15 covers for Nova is nice.

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