Grand Experiment 2: Treading Water in the SCL 10 Post-Shardpocalypse

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Comments

  • KGB
    KGB Posts: 3,741 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited November 2023

    @entrailbucket said:
    That's absolutely wild.

    Everyone else: this is what happens when you're in Classics full-time. Go back like 10 or 20 pages on here and look at the state of roadwarrior's roster when he made the move to Classics, and where it's at now.

    Wow, it was 3 1/2 years ago that he started this thread. Time is flying by as I would have sworn it wasn't more than 2 years old.

    It's the 3 1/2 years part than Classics that explains the difference in roster. I say that because even if he earned 30 cp a day that's only 10950 a year. The difference between spending that in latest vs classics is only 109 covers per year. That's not even 1 extra level on every 4* a year. In 3 years that's maybe 3 extra levels. That would be an imperceptible difference in roster level.

    Most of the gain has come from LTs + earning shards/covers in PvP/PvE + 3* farming etc. Yes, Classics helps a bit but an extra 100 covers a year didn't account for this roster change.

    KGB

    P.S. Note - I am speculating on his CP / day earnings since he never really listed his daily / weekly / monthly earnings anywhere that I saw. 30 CP a day seems reasonable.

  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards

    Lol what.
    You dramatically underestimate the 5* Champ rewards.
    He must be closer to 80 CP per day, plus 1 or 2 LTs.

  • ThaRoadWarrior
    ThaRoadWarrior Posts: 9,564 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited November 2023

    I never listed it because I never tracked it. It's well over 30, but I couldn't tell you by how much with accuracy. Bowgentle is more likely closer, it could even be more but again I really don't track anything anymore. I used to track every pull but I got tired of keeping notes; I really just let RNGeezus take the wheel and pull whatever shows up. But I think the real trick is that I spend it as I go, so my roster doesn't stagnate until it rockets, it's just always moving up kind of in real time. 4* rewards above 330 and 5* rewards are significant.

  • rainkingucd
    rainkingucd Posts: 1,532 Chairperson of the Boards

    My 5* target is always latest unchamped, and then once I get them champed I move around a bit.

    Sometimes I do the "highest shards" approach a few times (i.e. targeted all 5* over 450 shards) and then untargeted them as they each bumped over the 500 mark

    Sometimes I do the "fatten up Okoye" approach. She was like my 4th or 5th highest 5*, and now she's at the top but only by a couple of levels.

    For 4*, I think the approach is going to be "target an ascendable to a specific mark, then move on to the next". Polaris is current target, and her dupe is at 318. She is good and ready for ascension already, but I may just keep going and see how high I can get her as a test for when she's ascendable. But then Winter Soldier is at 276, so I kind of want to get him to 280 before I ascend.

    For 3*, I'm going the dual max champ approach, and I had a bunch of them already. Current target is She-Hulk, as her dupe is 229 and it shouldn't take too long to get her up to 266.

    Although I am tempted to go all in on a new release (Bong or SM:I) and see exactly how long it takes me to get to 370

  • ThaRoadWarrior
    ThaRoadWarrior Posts: 9,564 Chairperson of the Boards

    I kind of want to push Bong over too, both to see how long it takes and just to have him in 5* play. I know that very few people are going to use him like that lol.

  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards

    I'm not sure.
    True heal on a 5 for his teammates could be extremely valuable.
    Depends on how he scales.

  • DrClever
    DrClever Posts: 584 Critical Contributor

    I've been trying to think what the most amusing character to ascend to 5* would be.

    Bag Man is an obvious candidate but others will already be planning that.

    Talos is good (ish) now so no one is getting a giggle out of him appearing in their list of opponents.

    Squirrel Girl? Vision?

  • rainkingucd
    rainkingucd Posts: 1,532 Chairperson of the Boards

    I > @ThaRoadWarrior said:

    I kind of want to push Bong over too, both to see how long it takes and just to have him in 5* play. I know that very few people are going to use him like that lol.

    oooh, Bong + Coulson + Hawkeye?

  • Vhailorx
    Vhailorx Posts: 6,085 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited November 2023

    @KGB said:

    @entrailbucket said:
    That's absolutely wild.

    Everyone else: this is what happens when you're in Classics full-time. Go back like 10 or 20 pages on here and look at the state of roadwarrior's roster when he made the move to Classics, and where it's at now.

    Wow, it was 3 1/2 years ago that he started this thread. Time is flying by as I would have sworn it wasn't more than 2 years old.

    It's the 3 1/2 years part than Classics that explains the difference in roster. I say that because even if he earned 30 cp a day that's only 10950 a year. The difference between spending that in latest vs classics is only 109 covers per year. That's not even 1 extra level on every 4* a year. In 3 years that's maybe 3 extra levels. That would be an imperceptible difference in roster level.

    Most of the gain has come from LTs + earning shards/covers in PvP/PvE + 3* farming etc. Yes, Classics helps a bit but an extra 100 covers a year didn't account for this roster change.

    KGB
    P.S. Note - I am speculating on his CP / day earnings since he never really listed his daily / weekly / monthly earnings anywhere that I saw. 30 CP a day seems reasonable.

    But it's not just the extra 4* covers themselves. It's also the champ rewards those covers generate, especially in the level 340+ range where the champ rewards get really really good. So going classics equals more covers, which equals more champ rewards which generates more classics.

  • KGB
    KGB Posts: 3,741 Chairperson of the Boards

    @Vhailorx said:

    @KGB said:

    @entrailbucket said:
    That's absolutely wild.

    Everyone else: this is what happens when you're in Classics full-time. Go back like 10 or 20 pages on here and look at the state of roadwarrior's roster when he made the move to Classics, and where it's at now.

    Wow, it was 3 1/2 years ago that he started this thread. Time is flying by as I would have sworn it wasn't more than 2 years old.

    It's the 3 1/2 years part than Classics that explains the difference in roster. I say that because even if he earned 30 cp a day that's only 10950 a year. The difference between spending that in latest vs classics is only 109 covers per year. That's not even 1 extra level on every 4* a year. In 3 years that's maybe 3 extra levels. That would be an imperceptible difference in roster level.

    Most of the gain has come from LTs + earning shards/covers in PvP/PvE + 3* farming etc. Yes, Classics helps a bit but an extra 100 covers a year didn't account for this roster change.

    KGB
    P.S. Note - I am speculating on his CP / day earnings since he never really listed his daily / weekly / monthly earnings anywhere that I saw. 30 CP a day seems reasonable.

    But it's not just the extra 4* covers themselves. It's also the champ rewards those covers generate, especially in the level 340+ range where the champ rewards get really really good. So going classics equals more covers, which equals more champ rewards which generates more classics.

    But we can work that out (quick back of envelope). For example if you spend 10K cp on classic vs latest you get an extra 100 covers. Approximately 15 5's and 85 4's.

    4* generate an extra LT (or 5 star cover) every 10 levels so 80 more covers = 8 more pulls/covers. You get CP roughly every 3 levels so 25 more CP rewards of varying sizes (lets average that at 8) or 200 more CP which is 10 more pulls. That's 18 more pulls from 4s. Assuming his 5s champed, you get CP or LT every 3rd which works out to 10ish more pulls from 15 5* champ covers. Total it up and you get 28 more pulls (18+10). You can then do the math on what those 28 generates but lets call it +10 more or 38 in total from rewards on rewards on rewards.

    So the extra 100 pulls in classics works out to say 138 total covers after rewards applied and then respent back in classics. That's still only roughly 1 extra level on all your 4* per 10000 CP spent in classics.

    Now if he's earning 80 a day as Bowgentle suggests thats 80x365 = 29,200 a year (call it 30k). So that means he'd earn 138x3 = extra covers a year or approximately +3 levels on all his 4* each year. After 3 years of doing it, he's roughly +9 levels ahead on every 4*.

    KGB

  • Zalasta
    Zalasta Posts: 308 Mover and Shaker

    KGB - don't forget about bonus shards. Those end up being pretty significant over that many pulls.

  • ThaRoadWarrior
    ThaRoadWarrior Posts: 9,564 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited November 2023

    Also don’t forget that they just increased the 5* odds in Classic.

  • entrailbucket
    entrailbucket Posts: 7,001 Chairperson of the Boards

    For whatever reason the math has just never captured what's actually going on when we do this.

    I cannot count the number of times I've had a version of this discussion/argument, and the only answer I ever had was "it works for me in practice, I don't know why." Mostly that ended up with them giving reasons why it worked for me but could never work for anyone else (tenure, competitiveness, spend, etc).

    Now it works for roadwarrior too, he doesn't fit the same tenure/competitiveness/spend levels as me, and he potentially got to a better place faster than I did. I always suspected it was the additional 4* this method generated, but like me, he appears to have stopped tracking, so we'll probably never know!

  • KGB
    KGB Posts: 3,741 Chairperson of the Boards

    How much do bonus shards really matter here? I think you get 1% chance of 500 5* shards per pull so 140+ extra pulls is 1.4 extra covers (and roughly 1.4 more 4* covers too). Are you really going to notice 4-5 extra covers per 10000 CP when we are talking about earning thousands of covers a year (across classics, LTs, shards, earned covers from events, vaults etc). They are a rounding error.

    Entrailbucket, I'm definitely not saying this doesn't work. In fact I'd say what you and Roadwarrior are doing works very well indeed. Once you can ride the 'latest train' (covering new 5s just from LTs, feeders, shards, boss events etc before they leave latest), then you should definitely switch to using this system (spending CP in classics). The only reason not to do so is if you want to attempt to 550 a meta trio via a special store in which case you need to save massive amounts of CP. But if you want a well rounded roster where all your top characters are close in level so you have a wide variety of teams to use, this is the way to go because even if you only get +3 extra levels a year on your characters it's worth it. The only point I was trying to make is that classics alone doesn't explain his roster improvement, it's simply a product of hard work (a lot of playing and earning rewards/farming etc).

    KGB

  • Vhailorx
    Vhailorx Posts: 6,085 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited November 2023

    @KGB said:
    How much do bonus shards really matter here? I think you get 1% chance of 500 5* shards per pull so 140+ extra pulls is 1.4 extra covers (and roughly 1.4 more 4* covers too). Are you really going to notice 4-5 extra covers per 10000 CP when we are talking about earning thousands of covers a year (across classics, LTs, shards, earned covers from events, vaults etc). They are a rounding error.

    Entrailbucket, I'm definitely not saying this doesn't work. In fact I'd say what you and Roadwarrior are doing works very well indeed. Once you can ride the 'latest train' (covering new 5s just from LTs, feeders, shards, boss events etc before they leave latest), then you should definitely switch to using this system (spending CP in classics). The only reason not to do so is if you want to attempt to 550 a meta trio via a special store in which case you need to save massive amounts of CP. But if you want a well rounded roster where all your top characters are close in level so you have a wide variety of teams to use, this is the way to go because even if you only get +3 extra levels a year on your characters it's worth it. The only point I was trying to make is that classics alone doesn't explain his roster improvement, it's simply a product of hard work (a lot of playing and earning rewards/farming etc).

    KGB

    I think +9 levels on average across all 4* s is pretty significant, given the size of the 4* tier. It doesn't need to explain the entirety of roadwarrior's roster to be a significant factor.

    As for shards, I think that's a bit harder to calculate for a couple of reasons (1) because they shards system has changed during the past 3 years, and (2) because classics and LTs offer different rates of bonus shards. Has anyone done the math on bonus covers with the new(ish) pity system?

  • entrailbucket
    entrailbucket Posts: 7,001 Chairperson of the Boards

    Didn't they just make a big change to the bonus rate from Classics? Or was that awhile ago? There was something but I can't remember now.

    9 levels across all 4* sounds pretty lame, but you're right -- that's a ton of covers.

  • Vhailorx
    Vhailorx Posts: 6,085 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited November 2023

    @entrailbucket said:
    Didn't they just make a big change to the bonus rate from Classics? Or was that awhile ago? There was something but I can't remember now.

    9 levels across all 4* sounds pretty lame, but you're right -- that's a ton of covers.

    And they aren't evenly distributed. So it will be +3-5 for some characters, but +20 for others. And of course the number of 4* s has only gone up over 3 years, so the older 4* s will get more benefit compared to the newer ones. And looking at the batch of 4* s that roadwarrior was able to ascend the list is heavy on (i) old characters (is Shuri the newest?) and (ii) I think a lot of the first group of latest 12s from back in the day when that was a thing. Those characters got a decent level boost relative to their contemporaries and have always been a bit inflated on my own roster.

  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards

    Bonus shards matter A LOT.
    Whenever I pull a couple of hundred, the faved 4 gets 20+ levels, and the 5 gets 4 to 5.

  • KGB
    KGB Posts: 3,741 Chairperson of the Boards

    @Bowgentle said:
    Bonus shards matter A LOT.
    Whenever I pull a couple of hundred, the faved 4 gets 20+ levels, and the 5 gets 4 to 5.

    A lot relative to what? If 200 extra draws nets 20+ 4 star levels and 4-5 5 star levels then using the math above that's +30 4 star covers and +6 5 star covers in a whole year (based on 30K cp in classics vs latest). Compared to 1000+ covers earned per year (from all sources), 35 more is a rounding error.

    KGB

  • KGB
    KGB Posts: 3,741 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited November 2023

    @Vhailorx said:

    @entrailbucket said:
    Didn't they just make a big change to the bonus rate from Classics? Or was that awhile ago? There was something but I can't remember now.

    9 levels across all 4* sounds pretty lame, but you're right -- that's a ton of covers.

    And of course the number of 4* s has only gone up over 3 years, so the older 4* s will get more benefit compared to the newer ones.

    This is the elephant in the room. There are something like 220 characters now in the 4 and 5 tier combined. That means an extra 220 covers a year earned is now only +1 level per year on average. If the method generates an extra 140 covers per 10000 cp and you earn 30000 a year that's 420 covers a year and not quite +2 levels now (vs +3 when he started). As time goes on dilution only gets worse.

    None of that changes the idea that it's a good thing to do, because +420 covers is +420 covers even if the overall average level of the roster doesn't rise as much.

    KGB